Sunday, May 07, 2006

Stick a fork in Paul Semmel-He is Done

I have many Republican friends in Upper Macungie, and in talking to them over the past few days, one thing is very clear: They will not vote for Paul Semmel.
This changes the dynamic of the November race in the 187th drastically.
I first thought that Semmel's two challengers may split the vote, enabling him to win the nomination, but now I think it is a two horse race, with Carl Mantz of Kutztown and Alan Cerullo of Lehigh county both getting more than 35% of the vote, and Semmel might be lucky to get 25%. If the number of campaign signs is any indication, it could be even lower. As one Charlie Dent supporter told me, "Even the Republicans think it is time for him to go".
This is a smart strategy on the Republican's part, as Semmel would have a hard time defeating Archie Follweiler in November, and require a lot of Republican investment in keeping a seat they should win easily with their registration advantage in the district. Mantz or Cerullo would enable the Republicans to campaign as a party willing to change, and bring their natural strength to bear, at a lot less cost. Semmel losing the primary, in my estimate, lowers the chance of Democrats winning that seat from highly possible, to maybe on a cold day in hell. I like Archie, I think he would do a great job, but in this case, the Republican party is doing what it has to to hold the seat. In an election where Democrats need a ten seat swing to get control of the House, every seat that is up for grabs is vital. This is one I think the Republicans have taken out of play.


Blogger LVDem said...

I've seen Mantz' signs on the lawns of Lehigh County GOP committee members. Simply amazing. I have also seen a Semmel sign in the window of one butcher's store. I'd love to see him win the nomination and watch the GOP do to him what they did to Jane Ervin... turn to the Dem candidate enmass.

11:39 AM  
Blogger caseyhasabat said...

The Uber Fuhrer of Upper Macungie, Tom Gorr has always had Semmel signs in his driveway, even though Reichley is his Rep. That in itself speaks volumes about abandonment by the Republican establishment. I'm sure that come October, there will be Reichley signs there. The right wing Nazis do stick together.

5:52 PM  

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